Construction market trends

United States

X Values Permits (LHS, SAAR Millions) Output (RHS, SAAR USD billions)
Jan-19 1316 528328
Feb-19 1305 523569
Mar-19 1327 525424
Apr-19 1330 530800
May-19 1338 532148
Jun-19 1273 538372
Jul-19 1366 543830
Aug-19 1471 552508
Sep-19 1437 555879
Oct-19 1503 556693
Nov-19 1510 566916
Dec-19 1457 572387
Jan-20 1536 589103
Feb-20 1438 592960
Mar-20 1356 588060
Apr-20 1066 562339
May-20 1216 539555
Jun-20 1258 553721
Jul-20 1483 575451
Aug-20 1476 615396
Sep-20 1545 620941
Oct-20 1544 650484
Nov-20 1635 670051
Dec-20 1704 691000

Residential sector strong but building material shortages pose risks; private nonresidential output continues to stabilise.

Residential building permits up 60% y-o-y in April; private residential output up 30% y-o-y, but single-family housing starts down -13% m-o-m due to construction material shortages. Private non residential construction down by -0.5% m-o-m (-5% y-o-y). The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) expanded for the third month in April to 57.9 (> 50, expansion).

China

X Values Floor space started
Jan-19 17.91
Feb-19 13.08
Mar-19 10.69
Apr-19 13.08
May-19 11.15
Jun-19 9.12
Jul-19 6.61
Aug-19 6.95
Sep-19 6.05
Oct-19 11.01
Nov-19 8.02
Dec-19 8.26
Jan-20 -6.58
Feb-20 -17.65
Mar-20 -30.64
Apr-20 -18.42
May-20 -8.57
Jun-20 3.82
Jul-20 7.59
Aug-20 7.70
Sep-20 3.91
Oct-20 1.28
Nov-20 1.84
Dec-20 4.71

Chinese real estate generally buoyant but indications of slowdown emerge in April.

Newly started floor space up 13% in April on a y-o-y, 3 month moving average basis. Floor space sold up 48% during the same period.

Europe

X Values PMI (LHS) Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-19 50.6 0.38
Feb-19 52.6 6.14
Mar-19 52.2 6.32
Apr-19 52.1 3.11
May-19 50.6 2.34
Jun-19 50.8 2.14
Jul-19 50.6 1.86
Aug-19 49.1 1.03
Sep-19 50.5 0.28
Oct-19 50.7 0.37
Nov-19 50.6 1.11
Dec-19 51.3 -2.45
Jan-20 51.9 4.32
Feb-20 52.5 -0.18
Mar-20 33.5 -15.57
Apr-20 15.1 -29.59
May-20 39.5 -9.23
Jun-20 48.3 -4.55
Jul-20 48.9 -4.03%
Aug-20 47.8 0.74%
Sep-20 47.5 -2.84
Oct-20 44.9 -1.94
Nov-20 45.6 -1.28
Dec-20 45.5

Leading Indicators point towards stabilising activity in construction.

Eurozone construction up 2.7% m-o-m in March and 16% y-o-y due to the weak base in March 2020. The IHS Markit Eurozone Construction PMI remained unchanged at 50.1 in April (> 50, expansion) and indicating stabilising activity.

India

X Values Floor space started
Jan-19 1.44
Feb-19 1.79
Mar-19 4.98
Apr-19 4.30
May-19 2.91
Jun-19 0.18
Jul-19 2.00
Aug-19 -0.71
Sep-19 -5.72
Oct-19 -5.41
Nov-19 0.25
Dec-19 2.15
Jan-20 1.36
Feb-20 5.10
Mar-20 -8.96
Apr-20 -42.25
May-20 -21.14
Jun-20 -12.09
Jul-20 -7.95
Aug-20 -7.48
Sep-20 -0.34
Oct-20 -2.11
Nov-20 -1.92
Dec-20 -1.70

Core sectors output saw strong growth in April due to weak base but demand conditions remain generally weak.

Growth in eight core sectors up by 56% y-o-y in April and mostly due to weak base of activity during April 2020.


 

Special topic: Supporting the steel-concrete composite relationship in construction

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Technical trends: Demand forecasting models for construction equipment OEMs

Demand-forecasting tools are becoming increasingly important as markets get disrupted and rapidly evolve. To thrive amidst these changes, Construction Equipment (CE) OEMs must be able to estimate future demand by using data-driven, analytical models that allow them to make rapid adjustments to production and supply chains. Improved demand forecasting models drive benefits in multiple areas, including revenue generation, cost control, and capital optimisation.

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